The Sports Information Network is about gambling, finding the world’s best betting systems, making money, and enjoying a crustacean or two along the way. First we offered an NFL player prop prediction model in the beginning of the 2017 season that ended up winning 57% of the time. Then during that amazing run we launched an NBA statistical prediction model based on similar algorithms that won an astounding 59% of the prop wagers that we used it for. Since then we’ve received tons of requests to sell gambling picks for other sports but we haven’t had the expertise to draw upon to confidently offer anything else regularly.
So we’re going to step out of our comfort zone and offer free tennis gambling picks and give them a “trial by fire” to determine how well it can predict results. We will keep track of his record and update it regularly on this page. To be clear, neither Jacques Tannenbaum, Angelo Di Traglia, nor Liam Mahoney have anything to do with this – it’s totally new to all of us and we’ll be finding out how well it works at the same time as you. (Which is obviously why the picks will be free starting off.)
If we can find a capper that can churn out a 55% win percentage or higher, we will go ahead and sell them for real money.
How to Predict Tennis Results
While many use strictly algorithmic and math-based models to land on bets while altering the inputs to ensure peak efficiency, however it’s best to find several inputs that help identify which prices are off and would therefore make for profitable wagers. Below is the full process that should be used to identify bets across the ATP, WTA, Challenger and Women’s ITF tours and predict tennis match results.
First things first: identify prices that seem reasonably priced and offer little margin or value to profit from. With so many matches to sift through, those that don’t appeal right off the hop are immediately discarded. Even seasoned gamblers in other sports would be surprised how many wagers you can just scratch off the list after a few minutes of research.
Confirming a Bet’s Value
There are many factors involved in confirming a bet’s value and all of them are very important to determining your final wager. When bets appear to hold value there are numerous filters hat one must apply in order to ensure there isn’t a reason for what appears to be an incorrectly priced line.
- Form: First off, looking at form is important. None of these factors will give you a play on their own, so a player in or out of form doesn’t necessarily rule a bet out, but ensuring a player you want to bet hasn’t been in a tailspin is certainly a step you’ll always want to take.
- Surface: Any tennis bettor worth his salt knows that every player has their preferred surfaces. It is important, however, to verify bookies haven’t over (or under) compensated a player’s strength or weakness on any given surface. There are plenty of numbers to sift through to help confirm just that.
- Quality of Competition: Many bettors like looking at records, win percentages and underlying statistics to help inform their decision. That is all well and good, (and we’ll get to those in a minute), but assessing who those players amassed those stats against and at what level (Tour? Challenger? Qualifiers?) is also of vital importance.
- Fatigue: This is a factor that will be employed mainly for lower-level tour events and Challenger tour tournaments, where many players play week-in and week-out. Oftentimes, players who make deep runs will play their 2nd round matches on Thursday, quarters on Friday, semis on Saturday and finals on Sunday, then travel to a new location and play their first round matches on Tuesday, with just one day’s rest. For many this won’t become an issue in the first match, however in the 2nd round or quarterfinals many situations will present themselves to fade a big favourite who may be running out of gas, (especially against an up-and-coming young player who may still be an unknown quantity to much of the betting market).
- Underlying Numbers: Ahhh, the aforementioned statistics. As we cautioned before, these numbers need to be taken with a grain of salt. Knowing a player’s hold/break combination, as well as their effectiveness on first and second serve is pivotal. When combined with quality of competition, they can really paint a picture of how a player will matchup on any given day.
- Matchup: The final piece of the puzzle is to take all of these inputs and factor in how the players matchup. Someone may have an edge across almost all of these categories but if they’re a taller player who struggles with movement playing against someone who can slice, drop shot and angle well, they could be in for a very long day and see their weaknesses exploited. Just because something looks good on paper doesn’t necessarily make it an “auto-play”. When you blend all of the above factors to properly assess a player’s ability to matchup with the opposition stylistically, more often than not, you can find a fair number of profitably-priced propositions.
Free tennis gambling picks for today:
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