One of the most overlooked and often ignored areas by gamblers are proposition wagers, as game lines are simply more attractive. Excuses are varied: lower limits, higher juice, and preferring final scores over individual player performance, are popular explanations given.
Yet sharps know edges may be had realized through props, larger than what’s found on random game lines. These edges arise out of the simple fact that most, if not all, sportsbooks view props as a marketing tool as opposed to a moneymaker.
Junior employees manage performance and in many cases, create posted numbers. It’s shocking considering it takes years to become proficient at creating markets and usually by the time the trader reaches this point, they’re moved onto game lines.
Betting on Team Props
Team Props deal with statistical output of teams as a whole. Totals for runs scored in an inning, 3 pointers made in a game, first to score, and first to punt, are all popular examples.
retail gamblers don’t realize is team props are directly related to the moneyline and total, i.e., the price paid is related to these two factors and should only move when they do, not when people throw down on a side.
In the industry these are known as derived events and require little to no trading by bookies, as lines should adjust only when money comes in on game outcome. Edges are found when books deviate from this mantra and starts adjusting derived events based on action the entire event has received.
Smaller sportsbooks have lower risk thresholds and are more likely tempted to adjust team props due to one sided action. The same rule holds true the farther an operator slides on the
Sharp to Retail Spectrum.
The more retail a book becomes, the softer their prop lines will be, as retail players are normal clientele for the proposition market. Similar to game lines, these customers tend to stake favorites and Overs, leaving edges on underdogs and Unders.
Betting on Player Props
Player props focus on statistical output of single participants or groups, without using final scores to settle the event. Totals for passing yards, rushing yards, points, assists, and rebounds are common examples.
The amount of player props available varies by sport, with most popular North American leagues like NFL and NBA boasting the most options, readily available at most iGaming sites. Player Props on MLB, NHL, PGA, and NCAA college sports are also listed, however, it’s necessary to shop around to find attractive numbers.
Player props rarely move when moneylines or totals change and are generally slower to react to breaking news, leaving opportunities for shrewd prognosticators. A prime example of this is the NFL
Anytime Touchdown Scorer market when a starting wide receiver or running back is scratched right before the game, great value on his replacement is found, simply by consulting their depth chart. In most cases, this scratch has zero effect on game line, but props markets shift drastically.
Properly exploiting edges such as these can provide a nice cushion for bankrolls when getting pummelled on game lines. Incorporating a diverse portfolio is vital and including player and team props within it is an excellent way to extend the life of deposits. You might even be able to withdraw one day.