The Patriots. Wait, I must write more than two words? Fine, the Patriots are the largest favorite of any team in the league to win their division this year (-800 at time of writing). Simply put, I don’t think the Bills, Jets or Dolphins sniff double digit wins this year. The next several years will be interesting to watch with the additions of Allen and Darnold to the division but I don’t think they make much of an impact this year, though, I do think they both end up playing a decent amount of the year.
Buffalo Bills
Coaches:
Head Coach: Sean McDermott (2nd year)
OC: Brian Daboli (1st year from Alabama QB)
DC: Leslie Frazier (2nd year)
Key Position Week 1 Starters (Projected):
QB: AJ McCarron (rumors that Josh Allen may start)
WR: Kelvin Benjamin, Jeremy Kerley, Zay Jones, Corey Coleman
RB1: LeSean McCoy (potential legal trouble pending)
TE: Charles Clay
Key Player Changes:
Drafted Josh Allen 7th overall; signed AJ McCarron
Lost Jordan Matthews; signed Jeremy Kerley, Chris Ivory, Corey Coleman
Drafted Tremaine Edmunds LB 16th overall; Signed Star Lotulelei, Vontae Davis CB, Phillip Gaines CB
Strength of Schedule:
15th
Schedule Break-down:
Favored in two games
Underdog of a field goal or more in 7 games
They play six top 10 opponents and six bottom 10 opponents
Season win total:
Over 6 +120 / Under 6 -140
Doc’s Pick:
Under 6 -140 – I just can’t find seven wins on their schedule. Buffalo has big question marks at quarterback and big question marks at running back (legal trouble for McCoy plus he wasn’t all that productive last year). They do have one of the best schedule in terms of opponents pass defense efficiency, but I don’t think they’ll have the tools to truly take advantage of it.
Miami Dolphins
Coaches:
Head Coach: Adam Gase (3rd year)
OC: Dowell Loggains (1st year from CHI OC)
DC: Matt Burke (2nd year)
Key Position Week 1 Starters (Projected):
QB: Ryan Tannehill
WR: Kenny Stills, DeVante Parker, Danny Amendola, Albert Wilson
RB1: Kenyan Drake (Frank Gore will split carries)
TE: Mike Gesicki
Key Player Changes:
Ryan Tannehill comes back healthy; Jay Cutler retired
Signed Frank Gore, Jeremy Langford, Danny Amendola, Albert Wilson
Drafted Minkah Fitzpatrick S 11th overall and Mike Gesicki TE 42nd overall
Strength of Schedule:
9th
Schedule Break-down:
Favored in 5 games
Underdog of 6 or more points in five games
They play five top 10 opponents and seven bottom 10 opponents
Season win total:
Over 6.5 -140 / Under 6.5 +120
Doc’s Pick:
Over 6.5 -140 – I think the Dolphins win eight games this year. They have talented WR corps, they have a serviceable QB in Tannehill and although Gore is getting up there in years, he and Drake can combine for a powerful ground game. Ten of their games are a +/- 3 point spread and I think they will be able to win the close ones this year.
New England Patriots
Coaches:
Head Coach: Bill Belichick (19th year)
OC: Josh Daniels (7th year)
DC: Greg Schiano (1st year from Ohio St. DC)
Key Position Week 1 Starters (Projected):
QB: Tom Brady
WR: Chris Hogan, Julian Edelman (suspended 4 games), Eric Decker, Kenny Britt
RB1: Rex Burkhead (Sony Michel / James White)
TE: Rob Gronkowski
Key Player Changes:
Drafted Sony Michel 31st overall; lost Dion Lewis
Signed Jason McCourty CB, Trent Brown G, Adrian Clayborn DE, Danny Shelton NT
Signed Eric Decker, Cordarelle Patterson; lost Danny Amendola
Strength of Schedule:
2nd
Schedule Break-down:
Favored in 14 games
Favored by 6 or more points in eight games
They play four top 10 opponents and eight bottom 10 opponents
Season win total:
Over 11 -160 / Under 11 +140
Doc’s Pick:
Over 11 -160 – If the Patriots don’t win 12 games this year it might be the biggest disappointment of the league. We all know how dominant they have been and likely will continue to be with B&B at the helm. Brady is still somehow at the top of his game, Gronk is as dominant a TE that we’ve seen in this league and Hogan and Edelman get the job done. I think they win 14 pretty easily without any major injuries.
New York Jets
Coaches:
Head Coach: Todd Bowles (4th year)
OC: Jeremy Bates (1st year from NYJ QB)
DC: Kacy Rodgers (3rd year)
Key Position Week 1 Starters (Projected):
QB: Josh McCown
WR: Robby Anderson, Terrelle Pryor, Jermaine Kearse
RB1: Isaiah Crowell
TE: Clive Walford
Key Player Changes:
Drafted Sam Darnold 3rd overall; signed Teddy Bridgewater
Lost Matt Forte, Austin Sefarian-Jenkins; signed Isaiah Crowell, Thomas Rawls, Clive Walford
Signed Trumaine Johnson CB, Henry Anderson DT
Strength of Schedule:
6th
Schedule Break-down:
Favored in 4 games
Underdog of 4 or more points in 9 games
They play five top 10 opponents and seven bottom 10 opponents
Season win total:
Over 6 +110 / Under 6 -130
Doc’s Pick:
Under 6 -130 – Taking the under here with a frankly boring Jets team. They have a pretty easy schedule, but I don’t think they have the talent to take advantage of it this year. McCown is likely to start the season but my guess is that Darnold gets in rather quickly. They know developing him is the only chance for them to be good in the next several years. I say they are boring because they have mediocre talent at the skill positions, guys that get the job done but none that have explosiveness to take a team to the next level, hopefully for the Jets, Darnold will develop into that guy.
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