Doc’s Office: NFL 2018 – NFC West Team Totals

NFL 2018 NFC West Preview

 

Arizona Cardinals

Coaches:

Head Coach: Steve Wilks (new; was Carolina DC)

OC: Mike McCoy (new; was Denver OC)

DC: Al Holcomb (new; was Carolina LB)

Key Position Week 1 Starters (Projected):

QB: Sam Bradford

WR: Larry Fitzgerald, Bryce Butler, Christian Kirk (rookie)

RB1: David Johnson

TE: Ricky Seals-Jones

Key Player Changes:

Sam Bradford starting QB (drafted Josh Rosen first round, look for him to get playing time when playoff chances are gone)

David Johnson back and rested after 2017 week 1 wrist injury

Lost Tyrann Mathieu and Carson Palmer

Strength of Schedule:

32nd (hardest)

Schedule Break-down:

Favored in three games; all at home and all by 1 point

Eight games they are a field goal or worse dog; Six of the games they are a touchdown or worse dog.

They play only one bottom 10 opponent all season and they play six top 10 opponents.

Season win total:

Over 5.5 -155 / Under 5.5 +135

Doc’s Pick:

Under 5.5 +135

The numbers just don’t add up for me on the over for the Cardinals this year. They have the hardest schedule in the league and uncertainty at QB plus a brand new coaching triangle. I think they will be good soon, just not this year.

 

LA Rams

Coaches:

Head Coach: Sean McVay (2nd year)

OC: None: (McVay will call plays, Aaron Kromer is run game coordinator, Shane Waldron is pass game coordinator)

DC: Wade Phillips (2nd year)

Key Position Week 1 Starters (Projected):

QB: Jared Goff

WR: Brandin Cooks, Cooper Kupp, Robert Woods

RB1: Todd Gurley

TE: Tyler Higbee

Key Player Changes:

Brandin Cooks comes in to WR1 role but there are many weapons and in the WR1 role last year Sammy Watkins was fourth on the team in targets

Beefed up defense with Marcus Peters, Sam Shields, Aqib Talib and Ndamukong Suh

Lost Sammy Watkins (as mentioned above 4th in targets last year, big name, not big numbers)

Strength of Schedule:

23rd

Schedule Break-down:

Favored in 14 of 15 games

In seven games they are favored by a field goal or more

Rams play 5 top 10 opponents and 3 bottom 10 opponents

Season win total:

Over 10 -110 / Under 10 -110

Doc’s Pick:

Over 10 -110

The Rams have improved the defense and Goff was much improved last year with Gurley lighting things up as well. The new coaching staff reinvigorated this team and it showed. With the amount of games they are favored in this year they only have to play to expectations and will easily surpass this team total.

 

Seattle Seahawks

Coaches:

Head Coach: Pete Carroll (9th year)

OC: Brian Schottenheimer (1st year from IND QB)

DC: Ken Norton (1st year from SF DC)

Key Position Week 1 Starters (Projected):

QB: Russell Wilson

WR: Brandon Marshall, Tyler Lockett, Doug Baldwin

RB1: Rashaad Penny (rookie) (will likely share duties with Chris Carson)

TE: Ed Dickson

Key Player Changes:

Drafted Rashaad Penny who will likely be RB1 if such a thing exists in Seattle

Lost on defense: Kam Chancellor, Cliff Avril, Richard Sherman, Sheldon Richardson

Lost Jimmy Graham

Strength of Schedule:

30th

Schedule Break-down:

Favored in just 3 games, all at home and by margins of 1.5, 1 and 3

The line is +/- 3 in 13 of 15 games (2017 went 2-3 in games decided by 3 points or less)

Seahawks play 5 top 10 opponents and 3 bottom 10 opponents

Season win total:

Over 8 +110 / Under 8 -130

Doc’s Pick:

Under 8 -130

They are facing too good of a schedule this year to be expected to win 8 or 9 games. I think 6 wins is a much more reasonable number for the Seahawks. Their WR corp is below average, question marks with a rookie running back, defense will have a completely new look this year, Wilson will be the reason for any success but I don’t think he can carry them that far.

 

San Francisco 49ers

Coaches:

Head Coach: Kyle Shanahan (2nd year)

OC: None – Shanahan calls plays

DC: Robert Saleh (2nd year)

Key Position Week 1 Starters (Projected):

QB: Jimmy Garappolo

WR: Pierre Garcon, Marquise Goodwin, Trent Taylor

RB1: Jerick McKinnon

TE: Vance McDonald

Key Player Changes:

Drafted OT Mike McGlinchey

Added Jerick McKinnon; first full year with Jimmy Garoppolo

Added Richard Sherman (value TBD)

Strength of Schedule:

10th

Schedule Break-down:

Favored in 9 games

4.5 is largest spread as an underdog (not expected to lose by much when they do lose)

Niners play 5 top 10 opponents and 5 bottom 10 opponents

Season win total:

Over 8.5 +110 / Under 8.5 -130

Doc’s Pick:

Over 8.5 +110

Echoing my thoughts on the Rams, if the Niners just perform how they are expected to, they will surpass the 8.5 win mark. Garoppolo will have had an entire off-season to gel with the coaching staff and the offense. McKinnon should be a positive change in the backfield plus they beefed up their defense some along the way.

 

Check this out if you want to know where Doc gets his information from and what he’s looking at.

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