Arizona Cardinals
Coaches:
Head Coach: Steve Wilks (new; was Carolina DC)
OC: Mike McCoy (new; was Denver OC)
DC: Al Holcomb (new; was Carolina LB)
Key Position Week 1 Starters (Projected):
QB: Sam Bradford
WR: Larry Fitzgerald, Bryce Butler, Christian Kirk (rookie)
RB1: David Johnson
TE: Ricky Seals-Jones
Key Player Changes:
Sam Bradford starting QB (drafted Josh Rosen first round, look for him to get playing time when playoff chances are gone)
David Johnson back and rested after 2017 week 1 wrist injury
Lost Tyrann Mathieu and Carson Palmer
Strength of Schedule:
32nd (hardest)
Schedule Break-down:
Favored in three games; all at home and all by 1 point
Eight games they are a field goal or worse dog; Six of the games they are a touchdown or worse dog.
They play only one bottom 10 opponent all season and they play six top 10 opponents.
Season win total:
Over 5.5 -155 / Under 5.5 +135
Doc’s Pick:
Under 5.5 +135
The numbers just don’t add up for me on the over for the Cardinals this year. They have the hardest schedule in the league and uncertainty at QB plus a brand new coaching triangle. I think they will be good soon, just not this year.
LA Rams
Coaches:
Head Coach: Sean McVay (2nd year)
OC: None: (McVay will call plays, Aaron Kromer is run game coordinator, Shane Waldron is pass game coordinator)
DC: Wade Phillips (2nd year)
Key Position Week 1 Starters (Projected):
QB: Jared Goff
WR: Brandin Cooks, Cooper Kupp, Robert Woods
RB1: Todd Gurley
TE: Tyler Higbee
Key Player Changes:
Brandin Cooks comes in to WR1 role but there are many weapons and in the WR1 role last year Sammy Watkins was fourth on the team in targets
Beefed up defense with Marcus Peters, Sam Shields, Aqib Talib and Ndamukong Suh
Lost Sammy Watkins (as mentioned above 4th in targets last year, big name, not big numbers)
Strength of Schedule:
23rd
Schedule Break-down:
Favored in 14 of 15 games
In seven games they are favored by a field goal or more
Rams play 5 top 10 opponents and 3 bottom 10 opponents
Season win total:
Over 10 -110 / Under 10 -110
Doc’s Pick:
Over 10 -110
The Rams have improved the defense and Goff was much improved last year with Gurley lighting things up as well. The new coaching staff reinvigorated this team and it showed. With the amount of games they are favored in this year they only have to play to expectations and will easily surpass this team total.
Seattle Seahawks
Coaches:
Head Coach: Pete Carroll (9th year)
OC: Brian Schottenheimer (1st year from IND QB)
DC: Ken Norton (1st year from SF DC)
Key Position Week 1 Starters (Projected):
QB: Russell Wilson
WR: Brandon Marshall, Tyler Lockett, Doug Baldwin
RB1: Rashaad Penny (rookie) (will likely share duties with Chris Carson)
TE: Ed Dickson
Key Player Changes:
Drafted Rashaad Penny who will likely be RB1 if such a thing exists in Seattle
Lost on defense: Kam Chancellor, Cliff Avril, Richard Sherman, Sheldon Richardson
Lost Jimmy Graham
Strength of Schedule:
30th
Schedule Break-down:
Favored in just 3 games, all at home and by margins of 1.5, 1 and 3
The line is +/- 3 in 13 of 15 games (2017 went 2-3 in games decided by 3 points or less)
Seahawks play 5 top 10 opponents and 3 bottom 10 opponents
Season win total:
Over 8 +110 / Under 8 -130
Doc’s Pick:
Under 8 -130
They are facing too good of a schedule this year to be expected to win 8 or 9 games. I think 6 wins is a much more reasonable number for the Seahawks. Their WR corp is below average, question marks with a rookie running back, defense will have a completely new look this year, Wilson will be the reason for any success but I don’t think he can carry them that far.
San Francisco 49ers
Coaches:
Head Coach: Kyle Shanahan (2nd year)
OC: None – Shanahan calls plays
DC: Robert Saleh (2nd year)
Key Position Week 1 Starters (Projected):
QB: Jimmy Garappolo
WR: Pierre Garcon, Marquise Goodwin, Trent Taylor
RB1: Jerick McKinnon
TE: Vance McDonald
Key Player Changes:
Drafted OT Mike McGlinchey
Added Jerick McKinnon; first full year with Jimmy Garoppolo
Added Richard Sherman (value TBD)
Strength of Schedule:
10th
Schedule Break-down:
Favored in 9 games
4.5 is largest spread as an underdog (not expected to lose by much when they do lose)
Niners play 5 top 10 opponents and 5 bottom 10 opponents
Season win total:
Over 8.5 +110 / Under 8.5 -130
Doc’s Pick:
Over 8.5 +110
Echoing my thoughts on the Rams, if the Niners just perform how they are expected to, they will surpass the 8.5 win mark. Garoppolo will have had an entire off-season to gel with the coaching staff and the offense. McKinnon should be a positive change in the backfield plus they beefed up their defense some along the way.
Check this out if you want to know where Doc gets his information from and what he’s looking at.
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